The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
During this period the most outstanding facts were:
- In Argentina, Macri’s government has been shaken by the entire financial storm to which the country was subjected in May. It has taken a decision with high political cost (to negotiate with the IMF which gives ammunition to the opposition); an adjustment that calls into question its gradualist strategy, and its coalition has weakened amidst this whole context.
- In Brazil, the energizing effect of the reforms of Michel Temer’s government has been exhausted in 2018. The country immersed in an electoral campaign and with great uncertainties about who can win the elections, witnesses the last months of a government that has little margin of action to promote a viable reformist agenda.
- In Colombia, Iván Duque´s future government will be characterized by his strong support for the implementation of structural reforms, the strong presence of Uribe, the hardening (but not reversing) of the peace processes and the shadow of the Venezuela crisis on Colombia’s economy and international relations.
- Bolivia is dealing with good and bad news. The bad news: its economy faces serious problems (its income is decreasing, there is a high fiscal deficit, public debt is on the rise and the dollar exchange rate is outdated). The good news: there is still time to take adjustment measures without the pressure of an economy in crisis or collapsed.
- In Mexico, the great risk of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s forthcoming government, in the very short term, is to shatter the enormous expectations created by the next government´s lack of tools to fulfill them. And that would be a breeding ground for a new wave of social and political instability.
- In Venezuela, the survival of the government will depend on two circumstances. First, the opposition’s ability to present itself united, cohesive and with a credible proposal. Secondly, the way of undertaking hyperinflation and economic depression will condition the government.
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